The Truth About the Fresh, 34.1-mpg CAFE Standards
The Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) mandate was very first established in one thousand nine hundred seventy five and until this past April one has switched little since. It’s been years of debate, but ultimately, the standards have been significantly updated. By model year 2016, the fuel efficiency of the fresh vehicle fleet sold in the United States will have to average at least 34.1 miles per gallon.
The tailpipe emissions of our cars are regulated by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The EPA set standards for pollutants like NOX, SOX and particulates. The NHTSA took care of writing CAFE fuel-economy regulations. The EPA, however, is the rules enforcer for both sets of regulations and sets fines if automakers fail to meet the target.
But now, thanks to calls to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, the EPA also controls carbon-dioxide production. As any gearhead will tell you, the amount of CO2 produced is directly related to how much fuel a car burns. So for these fresh CAFE rules, which were finalized on April 1, 2010, both agencies are effectively rating fuel economy.
The EPA has mandated a fleet CO2 average of two hundred fifty grams per mile (155.Four g/km). That target actually equates to 35.Five mpg, which is higher than the NHTSA 34.1 requirement. But the EPA will give automakers credits for improvements to air-conditioning systems that also reduce leakage of refrigerants into the atmosphere or reduce fuel consumption while the system is operating, so the two standards are more or less in sync. These standards apply to all fifty states and, for now at least, California won’t be setting its own standards. The issue of different standards for different states has been a real headache for automakers, and this fresh bill shows up to suggest a solution.
Do not expect the fuel-economy numbers on new-car window stickers to switch drastically. Over the years those figures, which are produced by the EPA, have been adjusted to better approximate what actual consumers will achieve. For the purposes of CAFE, however, there’s a different calculation that’s far more optimistic in terms of fuel economy. Thus a car that achieves thirty five mpg for purposes of the CAFE calculation will likely wear a window sticker that has a combined rating of somewhere around twenty six to twenty seven miles per gallon.
The regulations are fairly complicated and in the over-300-page law there are uncountable nuances. Until now, every automaker has had to meet the same fleet-average standard regardless of what type of vehicles it built. A sports car maker such as Porsche had to hit the same average as a company that built a utter line of mainstream cars such as Honda or General Motors. Going forward, the EPA and the NHTSA will establish a target for every automaker and every model that is based on its footprint and sales. The purpose of the fresh rule is to see every vehicle improve, with the fleet averages enhancing by about Four.Three percent per year.
The footprint is defined as the average of the front and rear track multiplied by the wheelbase or the area inbetween the four wheels. Larger vehicles would have lower targets while smaller vehicles would be required to hit much tougher targets. That same procedure is now in effect across the board for cars and trucks.
For example, the fresh Ford Fiesta has a footprint of 39.Trio square feet while the Taurus has a footprint of 51.Three square feet. By 2016, the Taurus will need to hit a combined thirty six mpg while the Fiesta has to comeback over forty mpg. Those numbers are approximate right now because it will vary depending on sales of the different vehicles.
This idea has been promoted by U.S.-based automakers for many years because their truck- and SUV-heavy sales mix was pulling down averages. The concern with footprint-based rules is that it would encourage automakers to build larger vehicles in order to get lower targets. NHTSA has addressed this with the lithe targets. Because the overall fleet average is stationary at 34.1 mpg, it must be met regardless of the sales mix.
If automakers switch vehicle designs to have longer wheelbases and broader tracks, thus lowering their fuel-economy targets, it will be only a improvised advantage. The footprint target forms will end up being adjusted upward in order to achieve the statutory requirement of 34.1 mpg.
Similarly, if an automaker sells more large vehicles or trucks, its individual targets will be adjusted upward so that its overall fleet average hits the statutory requirement. The individual vehicle targets are actually more of a guideline than a hard and swift rule. For example, there will be no penalties for General Motors or Toyota if the Silverado or Tundra pickups fail to hit targets as long as other vehicles sold by that company are efficient enough to permit the fleet average to meet the minimum.
Automakers will be able to get some help in achieving their targets if they add advanced technology vehicles to their fleets. Plug-in vehicles don’t produce any direct emissions or use fossil fuel while operating in electrified mode. However, unless they are charged only from renewable sources such as solar or wind there are upstream emissions from power plants. Up through 2016, the EPA will nonetheless count a limited number of these as zero-CO2 vehicles for the percentage of their operating time that is electrified.
Only the very first 200,000 fuel cell (FCV), battery–electrified (BEV) or plug-in hybrid (PHEV) vehicles sold by an automaker inbetween two thousand twelve and two thousand sixteen will count toward this incentive. If an automaker sells at least 25,000 such vehicles in the two thousand twelve model year the total cap leaps to 300,000. So expect to see lots of carmakers pushing deals on BEVs and PHEVs and maybe even some FCVs during what is likely to be an extended two thousand twelve model run in order to hit that 25,000 number.
In automotive-industry time, model year two thousand sixteen is only five years away as we are now coming up on 2011. Given the lead times to develop and build fresh vehicles, that’s not much time, especially for smaller volume manufacturers such as Ferrari, Aston Martin or even Porsche. Under the fresh rules, companies with sales of less than 50,000 units annually will be given a partial deferment from meeting the required improvements over the phase-in period.
As long as a company like Porsche shows that it is making progress on improving efficiency and reducing emissions, the EPA will cut them some slack. Those companies will be able to exceed the standards by up to twenty five percent for up to 250,000 vehicles over the five years. Where possible those automakers will also have to purchase credits from companies that exceed the standards. A further round of rule making in two thousand twelve will go back and take another look at this program and make further adjustments.
Automakers with fewer than five thousand sales a year such as Ferrari or Lotus will be downright exempt from the CO2 standards until two thousand sixteen as long as they demonstrate that they are making a good-faith effort to buy credits. EPA plans to write CO2rules for small-volume manufacturers that would go into effect in the eighteen months following 2016.
While the fresh rules will no doubt lead to more efficient vehicles being produced over the next decade, they are unlikely to foment a radical switch in our vehicle fleet. The reality is that many of the cars and trucks available today already hammer the fleet-average requirement and many more will as they are substituted in the next duo of years. And it will take much longer to substitute the entire U.S. fleet. There are over two hundred million existing vehicles on American roads and it could take up to two decades to substitute most of those.
Still, in the combined analysis of the program, the EPA and the NHTSA estimate that the fresh rules will save sixty one billion gallons of fuel over the five-year period from two thousand twelve to 2016. Over the same period, CO2 emissions should be diminished by toughly six hundred fifty five million metric tons. The agencies estimate that almost twenty billion gallons of fuel will be saved in two thousand sixteen alone, which will be a significant amount for the fresh vehicle fleet.
EPA thirty four
The Truth About the Fresh, 34.1-mpg CAFE Standards
The Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) mandate was very first established in one thousand nine hundred seventy five and until this past April one has switched little since. It’s been years of debate, but ultimately, the standards have been significantly updated. By model year 2016, the fuel efficiency of the fresh vehicle fleet sold in the United States will have to average at least 34.1 miles per gallon.
The tailpipe emissions of our cars are regulated by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The EPA set standards for pollutants like NOX, SOX and particulates. The NHTSA took care of writing CAFE fuel-economy regulations. The EPA, however, is the rules enforcer for both sets of regulations and sets fines if automakers fail to meet the target.
But now, thanks to calls to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, the EPA also controls carbon-dioxide production. As any gearhead will tell you, the amount of CO2 produced is directly related to how much fuel a car burns. So for these fresh CAFE rules, which were finalized on April 1, 2010, both agencies are effectively rating fuel economy.
The EPA has mandated a fleet CO2 average of two hundred fifty grams per mile (155.Four g/km). That target actually equates to 35.Five mpg, which is higher than the NHTSA 34.1 requirement. But the EPA will give automakers credits for improvements to air-conditioning systems that also reduce leakage of refrigerants into the atmosphere or reduce fuel consumption while the system is operating, so the two standards are more or less in sync. These standards apply to all fifty states and, for now at least, California won’t be setting its own standards. The issue of different standards for different states has been a real headache for automakers, and this fresh bill emerges to suggest a solution.
Do not expect the fuel-economy numbers on new-car window stickers to switch drastically. Over the years those figures, which are produced by the EPA, have been adjusted to better approximate what actual consumers will achieve. For the purposes of CAFE, however, there’s a different calculation that’s far more optimistic in terms of fuel economy. Thus a car that achieves thirty five mpg for purposes of the CAFE calculation will likely wear a window sticker that has a combined rating of somewhere around twenty six to twenty seven miles per gallon.
The regulations are fairly complicated and in the over-300-page law there are uncountable nuances. Until now, every automaker has had to meet the same fleet-average standard regardless of what type of vehicles it built. A sports car maker such as Porsche had to hit the same average as a company that built a total line of mainstream cars such as Honda or General Motors. Going forward, the EPA and the NHTSA will establish a target for every automaker and every model that is based on its footprint and sales. The objective of the fresh rule is to see every vehicle improve, with the fleet averages enlargening by about Four.Three percent per year.
The footprint is defined as the average of the front and rear track multiplied by the wheelbase or the area inbetween the four wheels. Larger vehicles would have lower targets while smaller vehicles would be required to hit much tougher targets. That same procedure is now in effect across the board for cars and trucks.
For example, the fresh Ford Fiesta has a footprint of 39.Three square feet while the Taurus has a footprint of 51.Trio square feet. By 2016, the Taurus will need to hit a combined thirty six mpg while the Fiesta has to come back over forty mpg. Those numbers are approximate right now because it will vary depending on sales of the different vehicles.
This idea has been promoted by U.S.-based automakers for many years because their truck- and SUV-heavy sales mix was pulling down averages. The concern with footprint-based rules is that it would encourage automakers to build larger vehicles in order to get lower targets. NHTSA has addressed this with the nimble targets. Because the overall fleet average is motionless at 34.1 mpg, it must be met regardless of the sales mix.
If automakers switch vehicle designs to have longer wheelbases and broader tracks, thus lowering their fuel-economy targets, it will be only a makeshift advantage. The footprint target kinks will end up being adjusted upward in order to achieve the statutory requirement of 34.1 mpg.
Similarly, if an automaker sells more large vehicles or trucks, its individual targets will be adjusted upward so that its overall fleet average hits the statutory requirement. The individual vehicle targets are actually more of a guideline than a hard and quick rule. For example, there will be no penalties for General Motors or Toyota if the Silverado or Tundra pickups fail to hit targets as long as other vehicles sold by that company are efficient enough to permit the fleet average to meet the minimum.
Automakers will be able to get some help in achieving their targets if they add advanced technology vehicles to their fleets. Plug-in vehicles don’t produce any direct emissions or use fossil fuel while operating in electrical mode. However, unless they are charged only from renewable sources such as solar or wind there are upstream emissions from power plants. Up through 2016, the EPA will nonetheless count a limited number of these as zero-CO2 vehicles for the percentage of their operating time that is electrified.
Only the very first 200,000 fuel cell (FCV), battery–electrical (BEV) or plug-in hybrid (PHEV) vehicles sold by an automaker inbetween two thousand twelve and two thousand sixteen will count toward this incentive. If an automaker sells at least 25,000 such vehicles in the two thousand twelve model year the total cap leaps to 300,000. So expect to see lots of carmakers pushing deals on BEVs and PHEVs and maybe even some FCVs during what is likely to be an extended two thousand twelve model run in order to hit that 25,000 number.
In automotive-industry time, model year two thousand sixteen is only five years away as we are now coming up on 2011. Given the lead times to develop and build fresh vehicles, that’s not much time, especially for smaller volume manufacturers such as Ferrari, Aston Martin or even Porsche. Under the fresh rules, companies with sales of less than 50,000 units annually will be given a partial deferment from meeting the required improvements over the phase-in period.
As long as a company like Porsche shows that it is making progress on improving efficiency and reducing emissions, the EPA will cut them some slack. Those companies will be able to exceed the standards by up to twenty five percent for up to 250,000 vehicles over the five years. Where possible those automakers will also have to purchase credits from companies that exceed the standards. A further round of rule making in two thousand twelve will go back and take another look at this program and make further adjustments.
Automakers with fewer than five thousand sales a year such as Ferrari or Lotus will be fully exempt from the CO2 standards until two thousand sixteen as long as they demonstrate that they are making a good-faith effort to buy credits. EPA plans to write CO2rules for small-volume manufacturers that would go into effect in the eighteen months following 2016.
While the fresh rules will no doubt lead to more efficient vehicles being produced over the next decade, they are unlikely to foment a radical switch in our vehicle fleet. The reality is that many of the cars and trucks available today already strike the fleet-average requirement and many more will as they are substituted in the next duo of years. And it will take much longer to substitute the entire U.S. fleet. There are over two hundred million existing vehicles on American roads and it could take up to two decades to substitute most of those.
Still, in the combined analysis of the program, the EPA and the NHTSA estimate that the fresh rules will save sixty one billion gallons of fuel over the five-year period from two thousand twelve to 2016. Over the same period, CO2 emissions should be diminished by harshly six hundred fifty five million metric tons. The agencies estimate that almost twenty billion gallons of fuel will be saved in two thousand sixteen alone, which will be a significant amount for the fresh vehicle fleet.
No comments